Back on the Merry-Go-Round

June 26, 2013 at 8:23 am Leave a comment

As I write, the Australian Labor Party is tearing itself apart again. How many times do the people of Australia have to go through this ridiculous process of a leadership ‘spill’ in the Australian Labor Party? Only 3 months after Julia Gillard last said ‘this is it, this is an end to it’, and Kevin Rudd said he would never seek the leadership again, they’re back at it. Once more, she’s saying it has to be resolved once and for all, and he has ‘listened’ to his colleagues and ‘you, the people of Australia’ and changed his mind, in order to save us from Tony Abbott. The Labor caucus is just making it’s way into the Party room now (7.05pm AEST) The smart money is on a Rudd victory, and the public defection from Gillard of Bill Shorten is probably the last straw for her.

To me, though, even more interesting are a couple of other aspects to consider.

For example, is it just co-incidence that Tony Windsor and Rob Oakshott, (two of the Independents which formed an agreement with Labor which allowed Labor to form government), have both announced today that they will not seek re-election at the next election. Regardless of what you think of them, their politics and that agreement, it has largely provided a stable period of governance which actually (quietly) achieved a lot. So, did they know or suspect what was to transpire today? Or has their decisions to depart been the last catalyst for change? As I understand things, Windsor will not support Rudd or Abbott, and Oakshott probably is much the same, which then will make the last day of the Parliament tomorrow a very interesting prospect.

If Rudd wins, who amongst the Independents can he rely on for support? (He needs them to remains in government.) The Greens will not support the Liberals, Andrew Wilkie is undecided. Rudd may be able to rely on Peter Slipper, but what of Bob Katter?

Will Tony Abbott bring on a Vote of No Confidence in the government tomorrow in Parliament, which could theoretically lead to Abbott becoming caretaker Prime Minister. If Rudd does win, will he bring the election on earlier (the suggestion is for early August)?

So much is up for speculation, so many possibilities. What do you think: who will win tonight? What will happen tomorrow? Tell me and other readers what you think, and let’s share thoughts.

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Entry filed under: Politics and Government.

Alan Jones: you do not speak for me. Rudd Back Where He Always Believed He Should Be

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